One year to be remembered

The events of 2025 will make this year one of the most significant in Brazilian political history. The conviction and imprisonment of former President Jair Bolsonaro and his military allies indicated that there are limits that cannot be crossed within a democratic regime. While amnesty for members of the Armed Forces who conspired against democracy was a post-dictatorship reality, leniency did not gain traction in 2025, when the trial took place and the sentences began to be served.

The former president was considered the leader of a criminal organization formed with the intention of carrying out a coup d'état after his defeat in the 2022 elections, when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was elected. The coup plan, investigations revealed, even included the assassination of the newly elected president and the Supreme Federal Court (STF) minister, Alexandre de Moraes.

The plan, however, did not succeed, and Lula's inauguration was guaranteed. Approaching the final year of his third term, the Unicamp Journal interviewed the organizers of the book *Lula Government 3: Democratic Reconstruction and Political Impasses*, Fábio Kerche and Marjorie Marona, professors in the Postgraduate Program in Political Science at the Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro (Unirio). It also spoke with Unicamp professors Luciana Tatagiba and Ronaldo Rômulo de Almeida, and with Ludmila Ribeiro, a professor at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), authors of chapters in the book. The work, which brings together 55 researchers, was launched at the 49th meeting of the National Association of Postgraduate Studies in Social Sciences (Anpocs), held at Unicamp in October.

The professors analyze the trial of the actors involved in the coup plot. In Kerche's view, the conviction and imprisonment send a message to the military elites: "Don't venture into this again, because there is no more tolerance for it." They also comment on the actions of the Supreme Federal Court (STF). For Marona, the Court has been fundamental in stabilizing national politics, but at a high price: the exposure of the imbalance of power.

Recalling Lula's inauguration, with the participation of social movements and marginalized groups, political scientist Luciana Tatagiba discusses the relationship between civil society and the State, noting a return to a republican pact of dialogue with civil society. The professor also comments on changes in associativism in the country, highlighting the reorganization of a "popular democratic" field. This field, according to Tatagiba, faces difficulties in advancing its agendas due to a blockade by conservative sectors and the need to focus its actions on defending democratic institutions, threatened by Bolsonaro's policies.

Ronaldo Rômulo de Almeida, anthropologist and current director of the Institute of Philosophy and Human Sciences (IFCH) at Unicamp, assesses the challenges to dialogue between evangelicals and left-wing movements. The researcher reflects on the effects of the appropriation of ideas about being Christian and about family by right-wing and far-right groups, which requires the left to make an effort to discover and value new progressive evangelical references. Ludmila Ribeiro, a researcher at the Center for Studies on Crime and Public Security (Crisp) at UFMG, reflects on the challenges of dealing with public security problems in the country and attacking the ways in which criminal organizations ensure their operation and financing. According to the professor, the popular support shown for police operations, such as the one that occurred in Rio de Janeiro in October, signals a cry for help for public policies that break the cycle of violence.

Zero tolerance with coup-mongering

For Fábio Kerche, the revelation that sectors of the Armed Forces, along with former president Bolsonaro, plotted a coup d'état revealed that Brazilian democracy was not as consolidated as it seemed. "We were surprised by the fact that there are groups within the Armed Forces that still consider the possibility of breaking with democracy," says the professor.

The trial that resulted in the conviction of these military officers and Bolsonaro, he assesses, sends a message that Brazil no longer tolerates a coup threat. "This is unprecedented in Brazilian history and sends a message: 'Don't venture into this again, because there is no more tolerance for it.'"

The good news, he continues, is that there was no reaction from the military. “First, they split, because a significant portion did not support the coup, either due to political calculation or a legitimate adherence [to democracy]. Then, there was no reaction to the condemnation of those who did support it. That is good news. A significant portion of them accepted both the result of the polls and the result of the judicial decision.”

Regarding the start of Bolsonaro's sentence after the attempted violation of his electronic ankle monitor and the end of the appeal period, the professor considered it something that wasn't in the script. “This attempt to burn the ankle monitor is very surprising. However, the evidence was abundant, and he was convicted by the first panel. With the exception of Minister Luiz Fux, all the others convicted him. Thus, this is an expected and important imprisonment to highlight that no one can jeopardize democracy and think they will go unpunished.”

Kerche also analyzes the role of the Attorney General of the Republic in indicting those involved in the coup plot. According to the political scientist, this role, weakened since the Jair Bolsonaro administration, was restored with Paulo Gonet, which became evident with his indictment. “He brought back the sobriety to the role of the Attorney General. This is important because if we consider the actions of [Rodrigo] Janot in [Operation] Lava Jato, and the actions of [Augusto] Aras, who did not indict Bolsonaro, Gonet plays a more balanced, sober role and, without making much of a fuss, participated in a very important process in Brazilian history, conducting the process well.”

STF, the 'institutional dam'

Commenting on developments in the trial of the former president and those involved in the January 8 attacks, Marjorie Marona He argues that accountability establishes a "dividing line" by reinforcing democratic norms and signaling an "institutional cost for those who cross it." However, he indicates that this does not mean the end of Bolsonarism, which survives and adapts, mobilizing new leaders. "In other words, punishment does not, by itself, dissolve the authoritarian appeal; it contains and demobilizes part of the radicalism, but the dispute over democratic values ​​remains open." Thus, even with fissures in this field, the far right will not leave the electoral scene.

The professor also comments on the Supreme Court's performance in recent years, which she considers a "key piece of institutional balance and democratic stability in Brazil," containing coup attempts, combating the spread of fake news, and ensuring the integrity of elections. However, she emphasizes that this performance has two sides, one virtuous and the other problematic.
For Marona, the Supreme Court has become an “institutional bulwark” against the deterioration of democracy. “By mobilizing its constitutional prerogatives, the court has helped to prevent the collapse of institutions and to guarantee the continuity of the democratic regime.”

This cooperation continued during Lula's third term, during which the Supreme Federal Court (STF) also became a partner in defending democracy and seeking governability. “This cooperation between the Presidential Palace and the STF helped contain authoritarian offensives and stabilize national politics. But there is a price. The court's growing prominence exposed tensions between democratic legitimacy and judicial power. By repeatedly intervening in political disputes, the Court fuels criticism from both the left and the right: some denounce an excessively political court, others accuse it of partiality and selectivity. The result is a paradox: the STF has become indispensable to democracy, but also one of its greatest points of vulnerability, precisely because it embodies the imbalance of power.”

The political scientist also points out that, faced with a reconfigured coalition presidential system, with a strengthened Congress hindering negotiations, the government is acting with a "damage control presidentialism," mobilizing the Supreme Court to prevent setbacks. The fundamental role the Court has played, according to Marona, cannot be normalized, as democratic stability cannot depend solely on the courts. "For Brazilian democracy to breathe autonomously again, judicial protagonism must give way to the reconstruction of political trust and the revitalization of the democratic pact between the branches of government and society."

The good news, he continues, is that there was no reaction from the military. “First, they split, because a significant portion did not support the coup, either due to political calculation or a legitimate adherence [to democracy]. Then, there was no reaction to the condemnation of those who did support it. That is good news. A significant portion of them accepted both the result of the polls and the result of the judicial decision.”

Regarding the start of Bolsonaro's sentence after the attempted violation of his electronic ankle monitor and the end of the appeal period, the professor considered it something that wasn't in the script. “This attempt to burn the ankle monitor is very surprising. However, the evidence was abundant, and he was convicted by the first panel. With the exception of Minister Luiz Fux, all the others convicted him. Thus, this is an expected and important imprisonment to highlight that no one can jeopardize democracy and think they will go unpunished.”

Kerche also analyzes the role of the Attorney General of the Republic in indicting those involved in the coup plot. According to the political scientist, this role, weakened since the Jair Bolsonaro administration, was restored with Paulo Gonet, which became evident with his indictment. “He brought back the sobriety to the role of the Attorney General. This is important because if we consider the actions of [Rodrigo] Janot in [Operation] Lava Jato, and the actions of [Augusto] Aras, who did not indict Bolsonaro, Gonet plays a more balanced, sober role and, without making much of a fuss, participated in a very important process in Brazilian history, conducting the process well.”

Reconfigurations in associativism

Luciana Tatagiba She has been studying the topic of political participation and democracy since the 1990s. The professor believes that, since the New Republic, there has been a tradition of dialogue with civil society movements, which was broken with Bolsonaro. She says the resumption of this pact began with the inclusion of representatives of social movements and marginalized groups with Lula at his inauguration as president. "It was civil society that passed the presidential sash, based on a reaffirmation of the principle of popular sovereignty as the source of legitimacy for power," she observes.

The reactivation of councils that had been abolished by Bolsonaro, as well as the appointment of representatives of social movements to government positions, according to the political scientist, demonstrated a commitment to the recomposition of participatory bodies. However, there were significant challenges in advancing the agendas of these movements during Lula's government. Part of these difficulties stemmed from a blockage by conservative sectors and the moderation that the government implemented regarding these groups. "Bolsonarism, defeated at the polls by a small margin, remained strong in civil society," she observes.

According to Tatagiba, the actions of social movements were restricted as a result of the attacks of January 8, 2023, when Bolsonaro supporters invaded the Planalto Palace and the Three Powers Square, calling for a coup. "The entire popular democratic field was drawn into this imperative agenda of defending the Democratic Rule of Law and the institutions, which were previously criticized for their inadequacy. The movements are now being swept along by this tide of defending institutional order," he summarizes.

Furthermore, he argues, it is necessary to consider that the field of associativism in the country has been reconfigured, becoming much more diverse. "Bolsonarism expanded its mobilization infrastructure because they were in government for four years financing their bases in society and, unlike Lula, Bolsonaro's government was very mobilizing. He constantly mobilized his support base even when it was losing strength."

The struggle in the streets, he indicates, should be important next year, when presidential elections take place. For Bolsonarism, he analyzes, there will be challenges, since there has been a shift in the discourse of defending order and patriotism after the violent acts of 2023 and the actions of federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro with the United States, which resulted in retaliations from Donald Trump against Brazil.
“But one thing is certain: they will not leave the streets. They ousted a legitimately elected president, were instrumental in establishing and maintaining a government for four years, and almost succeeded in staging a coup. So, it is unlikely that these actors will withdraw from the streets,” he states.

For sectors allied with the Lula government, Tatagiba believes that Guilherme Boulos's rise to the position of Secretary-General of the Presidency signals an attempt to broaden the mobilization base. "The government hopes that Boulos will re-establish dialogue with groups with whom the government has been unable to converse until now and, at the same time, be able to re-establish ties with movements that are dissatisfied with the government."

'Does not exist organized crime PULL state corruption

Exactly two months separate two models of combating organized crime in the country. On August 28th, Operation Hidden Carbon targeted businesses and institutions used for money laundering by the First Command of the Capital (PCC) and other criminal organizations, from gas stations to fintechs operating investment funds. The São Paulo State Public Security Secretariat estimates that more than R$ 7 billion in assets and valuables were seized without a single shot being fired. Then, on October 28th, a mega-operation against the Red Command (CV) turned the Penha and Alemão complexes in Rio de Janeiro into a battlefield. According to official figures, 121 people were killed, 113 were arrested, and 118 weapons were seized. The main leader of the CV, Edgar Alves de Andrade, known as Doca, however, remains at large.

The horrors perpetrated in Rio de Janeiro have spurred debate around public security policies. According to Ludmila Ribeiro, proposals that do not focus on strengthening police intelligence sectors to combat the funding sources and operational logic of criminal organizations, nor address the role played by the states and the federal government, will be ineffective. "We are not looking at any of this because we are dealing with the day-to-day reality, the surface of the problem," reflects the researcher, who considers initiatives like the Anti-Gang Bill to be "totally populist and electioneering."

Ribeiro argues that state police forces currently have autonomy, which hinders the establishment of policies that coordinate the State Public Security Secretariats, the Ministry of Justice, and the Federal Police—a measure that would be possible with the approval of the so-called Public Security Amendment. However, the proposal faces strong opposition in the Legislature. “A Congress that, in the area of ​​public security, was heavily funded by the arms industry, especially the campaigns of former police officers with the discourse that 'the only good criminal is a dead criminal'.”

In her chapter in the book, also co-authored by Valéria Oliveira and Amanda Lagreca, Ludmila analyzes how the dilemmas of public security were fueled by the easing of access to firearms, especially during Jair Bolsonaro's government. She points out that, while in 2008 there were an average of 22 new registered firearms for every 100 collectors, sport shooters, and hunters (CACs), by 2022 the number had already reached 229 firearms for every 100 CACs. "When there was this easing of CAC registration, it became easier for those involved in crime to also register as CACs, legally buy weapons, and use them for illegal purposes," she explains, also linking this to the increase in police lethality as a consequence of this public insecurity.

In debates on the subject, a common diagnosis is that left-wing governments have difficulty dealing with public security. Ribeiro argues that this dates back to the period of the country's redemocratization after 1985, when a consensus formed that, with the set of social policies created by the 1988 Constitution, the problem of crime would be solved, without the need for specific policies for it. However, she believes that the same Constitution did not foresee reforms in the structure of the police forces, which retain rules still from the Estado Novo dictatorship (1937-1945), making an effective reform of the sector unfeasible.

The effect of this is reflected in people's perceptions. A survey by the Atlas/Intel institute showed that support for the mega-operation reaches almost 80% among residents of favelas in Rio de Janeiro. "I see this reaction as a great cry for help for some policy capable of breaking the cycle of violence." According to Ribeiro, there is a perception among people that social policies have not been able to contain the advance of crime, nor the increase in incarceration, leaving as an option the support for discourses that promise to kill criminals. For the researcher, it is necessary to attack the loopholes through which organized crime penetrates the structure of the State, favoring these organizations. "There is no organized crime without state corruption, and the example of the militias is our testament to incompetence."

Crisis of multilateralism and dilemmas of COP30

The year 2025 was also marked by Brazil's leading role in the debate surrounding environmental policies. Between November 10th and 21st, the city of Belém (PA) hosted more than 42 representatives from 195 countries at the 30th United Nations Conference on Climate Change, COP30. Although the event produced results such as the creation of the Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF) and the approval of the so-called "Belém Package," concrete measures for abandoning fossil fuels—the primary objective of the COPs, defined by UN convention since ECO 92—were nonexistent. "What kind of multilateralism is this? Historically, the United States is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases on the planet, and they didn't participate," questions Luiz Marques, professor at IFCH and columnist for the Unicamp Journal.

Marques believes that part of the difficulty of the COPs, not just Brazil's, is a reflection of how the United Nations is organized, with decisions that do not override the internal sovereignty of member countries and with a Security Council with veto power. "It is necessary to create a new forum to deal with these issues, because this one [the COP] has failed," comments the professor, who also denounces the lobbying carried out by representatives of the oil and agribusiness sectors at the event. "Lobbyists who did not infiltrate under the table, but were duly accredited by the participating countries."

Beyond his role at COP30, Marques criticizes Brazil's position in perpetuating oil exploration under the justification that the profits obtained will fund the energy transition. He cites the example of the 5th Permanent Concession Offer Cycle, held in June, in which 34 exploration blocks were auctioned with the potential to extract 24 billion barrels of oil. It is estimated that this exploration could result in the emission of 11 billion tons of carbon, equivalent to five years of all the country's emissions. "How can anyone be so naive as to think that this will improve the country's situation?" On October 20th, research for oil exploration at the mouth of the Amazon River was authorized by IBAMA (Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources). "There is still a nationalist discourse in the country that 'the oil is ours,' as if the carbon emitted by Petrobras wouldn't be harmful because it could boost our progress."

Among the positive aspects of COP30, Marques believes that the intense social mobilizations at the event, especially by indigenous peoples, served to make the world aware of them and hear their demands. He also views favorably the initiative of Colombia and the Netherlands to organize a specific conference on the use of fossil fuels. The event will take place in April 2026 in the Colombian city of Santa Marta. “Colombia is leading a process of partial organization of truly engaged countries,” argues Marques. “Meanwhile, Brazil demonstrates that it is on the other side of the trench.”